Bubble Watch

SEC striving for six; MVC picture muddles Change Bubble Watch Version: 2/24/2006 2/21/2006 2/17/2006 2/13/2006 2/10/2006
By Andy Glockner
ESPN.com

The Missouri Valley may still be in good shape to get five teams in, but which five may have changed from just a week ago, as rampaging Missouri State and Bradley are putting huge pressure on slumping Southern Illinois.
Elsewhere, the SEC continues to look strong and could land a previously unthinkable six bids.

On to the current distribution ...

Figuring in locks and teams likely to be in, and taking the relative status of the current teams on the bubble, the best current power conference estimate looks like this:
• ACC: 4 bids
• Big 12: 4
• Big East: 8
• Big Ten: 6
• Pac-10: 4
• SEC: 5

Making the fairly safe assumption that the automatic bid winners in each conference will come from the pools of teams below (and therefore not potentially "steal" an extra bid for the conference), the six power conferences are taking 25 of the 34 at-large spots (31 total projected bids minus six auto bids).

That leaves nine spots open, although the power conferences probably will grab one or two more as things shake out. That still leaves seven or eight at-large spots available for everyone else, assuming teams like Bucknell and Gonzaga win their conference tournaments so the Patriot and WCC don't get an extra team. Memphis very well could be in that mix, too, unless UAB strengthens its case.

Who looks best set to fill that void? As mentioned, the Valley looks like a near lock right now to get four bids (three at-larges) and could even get five. The A-10 could grab an at-large, and the CAA is looking very good to get two in. The MAC still looks as though it's in for another one-bid season; will the Mountain West follow suit?


(Note: Starting Tuesday, Feb. 28, Bubble Watch will be updated daily through Selection Sunday. Records are D-I only.)

Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Maryland, Florida State, Virginia, Miami

Four are locks. Can the ACC grab one more from what looks to be a very soft bubble? Florida State just beat Virginia and Maryland and probably is next in line.
Work left to do:

Maryland [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 49, SOS: 8] Terps have entered serious jeopardy phase after falling at FSU. The profile is still devoid of any real heft. Very strong SOS doesn't mask very questionable at-large RPI and 1-6 against the RPI Top 50.

Florida State [17-7 (7-6), RPI: 57, SOS: 119] Huge 11-point home win over Maryland gives 'Noles back-to-back bubble Ws. Huge opportunity at home against Duke awaits, but can FSU sneak in by beating Va Tech and Miami and notching an ACC Tourney quarterfinal win?

Virginia [14-10 (7-6), RPI: 59, SOS: 40] Big upset of BC keeps the Cavaliers in the hunt, but they still have a lot of work left to do. It won't be easy with two road games (2-8 away record) and no soft touches left. Would getting to 9-7 be enough for UVa? It at least would keep the Cavaliers in the mix heading into the ACC Tourney.

Miami [15-12 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 23] Beat VT, but probably need four more in a row (two in ACC tourney) to think about an at-large.



Big East Conference
Work left to do: Cincinnati, Syracuse, Seton Hall

The league has six, and looks pretty solid for eight. Could it get all nine? That's probably up to Seton Hall.

Work left to do:

Cincinnati [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 25, SOS: 6] Would have loved the W, but the near miss against Nova reflects well on the Bearcats. Probably only need to win one of their final two (at Seton Hall, WVU) to have a very legit claim. RPI is solid and SOS is great, but Bearcats are only 3-7 vs. RPI Top 50 (7-2 vs. 51-100).

Syracuse [19-8 (7-6), RPI: 26, SOS: 9] Back off the mat with an impressive rout of Louisville and an upset of West Virginia after the Orange had dropped six of eight. Still only 2-8 vs. RPI Top 50, but 6-0 vs. 51-100, which can't hurt the 'Cuse cause. Big shots left at G'town and vs. Nova.

Seton Hall [16-9 (7-6), RPI: 51, SOS: 37] Bad loss at St. John's puts Pirates back in bubble trouble. SHU needs to get the next two before a shot at Pitt in the season finale. 9-7 in conference play may be enough, barring a first-round exit in the Big East tourney.




Big Ten Conference
Teams that should be in: Michigan
Work left to do: Indiana, Minnesota

What looked like a lock for seven bids has completely unraveled with IU's struggles. Wolverines are still in good shape; Hoosiers are not. Can Minnesota continue its miracle rally?

Should be in:

Michigan [18-7 (8-6), RPI: 21, SOS: 43] Huge home win over Illinois more than likely ices a bid for the Wolverines. Still only 3-6 vs. RPI Top 50, but 7-0 vs. 51-100.

Work left to do:

Indiana [14-10 (6-7), RPI: 42, SOS: 20] IU barely scraped past Penn State to end its skid at five, but the Hoosiers are still in pretty deep bubble trouble. Must beat Purdue and probably Michigan in the finale to get to 8-8.

Minnesota [14-10 (5-8), RPI: 62, SOS: 19] Gophers are still alive after beating Purdue. They probably need to win out to have any chance (barring a miracle Big Ten tourney run); the trip to Wisconsin could determine things one way or another.



Big 12 Conference
Work left to do: Colorado, Texas A&M, Nebraska

Past the top three, the Big 12 is trying its best to play its way out of additional bids. I would imagine, when all is said and done, that the Big 12 will get four bids, but it's not a good idea to keep pushing things.

Work left to do:

Colorado [17-7 (7-6), RPI: 50, SOS: 110] Ugh. Getting blasted at Nebraska puts the Buffs in very dicey shape. Getting the final two home games might still be enough. Very well could come down to the Big 12 tourney.

Texas A&M [17-7 (7-6), RPI: 67, SOS: 131] Edged Missouri on the road to set up what looks like an elimination game at home against Nebraska. Being only 1-4 against the RPI Top 50 and having a brutal nonconf SOS don't help, but A&M has two winnable games and a home shot at Texas left to add to its current four-game winning streak.

Nebraska [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 97, SOS: 93] Playing the Monty Python "We're not dead yet" card with home rout of Colorado. If they win their last three, the Huskers have a chance, but their RPI is terrible. NU is 2-1 against the RPI Top 25 but 1-4 vs. 26-50.




Pacific-10 Conference
Teams that should be in: Arizona
Work left to do: California

We'll move Washington into lock status after the Huskies manhandled Stanford. Arizona looks to have settled its bubble doubts. Stanford falls off the watch after its recent slide. Cal scraped past Wazzu and now takes aim at Washington. A win there could be enough. Expect four from the Pac-10.

Should be in:

Arizona [16-10 (9-6), RPI: 18, SOS: 5] With three home games left, hard to see Cats not getting to 11 wins, which would be more than enough. Frankly, one more is probably sufficient.

Work left to do:

California [17-7 (11-4), RPI: 60, SOS: 120] Big win at Washington State keeps Bears on track. Would like to see a big road win at Washington to help settle things.



Southeastern Conference
Work left to do: Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

Getting two of Kentucky, Alabama and Arkansas wouldn't be a shocker. Could all three make it and get the SEC six?
Work left to do:

Kentucky [18-9 (8-5), RPI: 37, SOS: 28] Cats are finding their A-game at just the right time. Smushed Ole Miss in a must-get home game to set themselves up nicely for brutal final three (at LSU, at Tennessee, Florida). Still a terrible 1-7 vs. the RPI Top 50, with ugly blowout losses to IU and Kansas to keep in mind, but one more SEC win probably is enough to justify a bid.

Alabama [15-10 (8-5), RPI: 39, SOS: 7] Very tough loss at Arkansas puts a slight damper on the monster home win over Tennessee, but with Auburn and Miss State still remaining, Bama looks to be in very good shape.

Arkansas [18-8 (7-6), RPI: 53, SOS: 88] Rallied from 18 down to stop Alabama in a game that featured one of the most exciting final minutes of the season. Wins over Miss. State and Georgia would get the Hogs to at least nine SEC wins, with a shot at Tennessee left, too. RPI and SOS are middling but improving.

Vanderbilt [14-10 (5-8), RPI: 69, SOS: 34] Loss to LSU probably leaves the Commodores needing to win five straight (including SEC tourney) to have a chance.


Other at-large contenders
Teams that should be in: Nevada, Northern Iowa, Creighton, Bucknell
Work left to do: Missouri State, NC Wilmington, Hofstra, Bradley, Western Kentucky, Utah State, Air Force, Southern Illinois, UAB, Wisc. Milwaukee, Houston, Temple, San Diego State, Charlotte

The Valley weakened a little this week, with rampaging Mo State and Bradley really putting the heat on fading SIU, and Northern Iowa dropping out of mortal lock status. A couple of other teams (UAB, UNCW, Air Force) are getting some help and keep winning, which is helping their causes.
Should be in:

Nevada [20-5 (10-3), RPI: 27, SOS: 92] Have a hard time seeing Nevada not make it at this point, but will stop just short of calling the Pack a lock. That would come if they win at USU. No huge win (1-2 vs. RPI Top 50) but lots of solid ones (6-1 vs. 51-100).

Northern Iowa [20-7 (11-6), RPI: 28, SOS: 49] I still think UNI is fine, but losing three of four, including two at home (one by 22 points) is not what the Committee wants to see. As long as UNI doesn't lose its next two games, the Panthers probably are in, but it's not the absolute lock it was just a few days ago.

Creighton [19-7 (12-5), RPI: 32, SOS: 65] Creighton is now clearly in the top three in the MVC, which should be enough for an at-large, even though SIU swept the Bluejays. A win at Missouri State locks it up.

Bucknell [21-4 (13-0), RPI: 35, SOS: 153] Gave away the game at UNI, but bounced back to beat second-place Lehigh. If the Bison can survive the boredom of back-to-back home games against Army, that should wrap up a berth.

Work left to do:

Missouri State [19-7 (11-6), RPI: 23, SOS: 48] Searing hot Bears have a big shot at Creighton to close the MVC regular season. A win there and one MVC tourney win and the Bears look to be in extremely good shape. Even one more win gives them a very valid case.

NC Wilmington [21-7 (14-3), RPI: 34, SOS: 85] Should be in position to gain at least a share of the CAA crown by beating Georgia State at home. Barring a first-round CAA tourney flameout, UNCW should join George Mason in the NCAAs. 10-6 road/neutral record helps, but two sub-150 losses and a 1-3 mark against the RPI Top 50 don't.

Hofstra [21-5 (13-4), RPI: 38, SOS: 177] Pride dumped George Mason into a first-place tie with UNCW in the CAA and gave themselves a chance to force their way into the picture. Probably need to make CAA finals, but in a league that should get two, that could be enough.

Bradley [17-9 (10-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 58] Braves made the Valley statement of the week by hammering Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls to get a season sweep of the Panthers. Braves are now 6-5 vs. RPI Top 50. If the Braves win their last MVC game and make the conference tourney semis, they have a very legitimate chance.

Western Kentucky [19-6 (11-2), RPI: 44, SOS: 95] Loss to MTSU was very damaging for modest at-large hopes, but WKU is still in line to win the Sun Belt, which gives them a lifeline. Probably needs to get to tourney finals and lose a tough one to South Alabama to have a chance.

Utah State [18-6 (9-4), RPI: 45, SOS: 126] Escaped feisty NW State in BracketBusters and at Boise State to set up big home game against Nevada that could give USU a season sweep of the Pack. Sweep at hands of New Mexico State doesn't help cause, but profile has improved.

Air Force [20-5 (10-4), RPI: 46, SOS: 175] Got help from BYU, which beat SDSU, to bring the Falcons within a game of SDSU. Air Force just needs to keep winning games and hope a gaudy record overshadows the SOS problem. Another team that might finish second in a solid conference and will be sweating heavily on Selection Sunday. Having no RPI Top 50 W's hurts more than the 4-2 mark vs. 51-100 helps.

Southern Illinois [18-9 (11-6), RPI: 47, SOS: 72] We said SIU should be concerned after BracketBusters; that concern should be five times greater now after an inexcusable loss at Evansville and sizzling Mo State and Bradley right on its heels. 4-3 vs. RPI Top 50 and 8-7 on the road are both big pluses for a mid.

UAB [18-5 (9-2), RPI: 54, SOS: 189] Helped by UTEP's loss at Memphis but still zero RPI Top 50 W's. Blazers might need to win against Memphis on March 2.

Wisc. Milwaukee [18-8 (12-4), RPI: 55, SOS: 102] After home loss to Mo State in BracketBusters, UWM no longer appears to be a viable at-large team. Panthers had better win the Horizon tourney.

Houston [17-6 (8-3), RPI: 56, SOS: 116] Two big Top 25 wins and two big C-USA chances (vs. UTEP and at Memphis) put Cougars in the picture for now.

Temple [15-10 (8-6), RPI: 61, SOS: 67] Temple smoked Richmond, but it may be too little, too late. Have to beat Duke to have an at-large chance.

San Diego State [16-8 (11-3), RPI: 65, SOS: 99] Couldn't afford a loss at BYU, which brings three others just a game back in the MWC standings. At-large claim with a two-game margin in conference much stronger than if they eke it out by one. Huge game at New Mexico on Saturday.

Charlotte [17-9 (10-3), RPI: 96, SOS: 152] One-point escape at UMass means the 49ers likely will have won eight of nine entering the game at GW -- what could be a must win. RPI and nonconf SOS are still very weak, but the 49ers still could finish second in what should be a multibid league. Strange case.